Right, I’m
back. At One More Bar; an Aussie style sports bar. Got some footy on and a
Melbourne Bitter, with potato skins on the way. I’m going to the gym tomorrow
so I’ll make up for it.
To follow on
briefly from what I wrote at the end of my last blog, before I get onto Event
#2, I am going to expand on my discussion of TMR’s case for his presidential
bid. The point I want to address is his claim that all presidents elected in TL
have been independent (all two of them, being XG and JRH), which he claims
strengthens his case because he too is an independent candidate. In contrast,
there is no mistaking Lu Olo as FRETILN’s candidate. TMR claims that the people
of TL always pick independent candidates, and because of this, he should be
elected. This particular aspect of his argument was raised in a recent entry in
the diak ka lae blog, and I am grateful to those responsible for posting it.
You can find a link to the diakkalae.com blog at the right hand side of my
blog.
There are
certainly some strengths associated with a candidate for president not being
formally tied to a political party. Lu Olo is definitely FRETILIN’s man, and
his relationship with that organisation for some voters is probably problematic
at the very least. How much Lu Olo would be able to be himself, as opposed to a
creature of the party machine, under the influence of its leadership i.e. Mari
Alkatiri in particular, is a valid point of discussion. The idea of a person
from FRETILN being the head of state for all Timorese is divisive for many, I’m
thinking particularly of those who became disillusioned with FRETILIN or being
actively involved in forming the anti-FRETILN bloc during its term in
government 2002-2007.
An independent
candidate would seem naturally a safer and more palatable prospect in this context.
JRH did well enough in the first round in 2007 to pass through to the run off,
where he benefited from the formation of an anti-FRETILN movement, which
encompassed the support of almost all of the other candidates from the first round –
bar Manuel Tilman from KOTA. CNRT, as part of this movement, saw its chance to
flex its muscle and eliminate Lu Olo in 2007 by backing JRH, though JRH seemed to be able to
remain his own man during his term as president, and not be beholden to the
pressures exerted by the parties that supported him. The tension between JRH
and XG over the last five years, over a variety of issues, demonstrate that JRH
was determined to keep his independence to a large extent demonstrated in
criticism of the CNRT led AMP government. This less than harmonious relationship
between the PM and President has partly contributed to CNRT not backing JRH in
his Presidential bid in 2012.
A side note.
JRH appeared to have decided late in the game to run again. He would not get
backing from CNRT as he did in 2007. He was assured that CNRT would not back
another candidate, however. This proved a short lived promise, as CNRT got
behind TMR shortly before campaigning in the first round began. I believe that
the personal relationship between JRH and XG, at least at a political level,
had deteriorated substantially. They did not see eye to eye on everything and
by most accounts JRH was not shy in criticising XG and his government. XG
backing TMR might have been a way of punishing JRH politically, perhaps XG
wanted to ensure JRH would not make it through to the second round. TMR was the
obvious choice to back if XG wanted to challenge FRETILIN and also undermine
JRH. Lasama, the leader of Partido Democratico, was a strong candidate but
would be harder to manage and influence from the perspective of XG, given that
Lasama was in charge of his own party etc. This appears to be a fairly cynical
piece of political maneuvering by XG, his personal relationship with TMR is not
supposed to be a happy one. Most of it would come from all the chaos of 2006,
when TMR was head of the defence forces and XG was President. What really
happened will probably never be revealed, but mistakes were made by almost all of
the leadership caste at the time and apparently those two guys still have a
beef with each other. TMR and XG/CNRT is a marriage of political convenience.
The
essential thrust of my point is that while TMR presents himself as an
independent candidate, it is terribly difficult for him to hold to that
argument given how reliant he has become on XG and CNRT to get behind his
campaign. Additionally, while independent candidates have become president in
the last two elections, this does not mean a candidate from a particular party
cannot or should not be voted in. I would argue that neither candidate, TMR or
Lu Olo, is independent, despite TMR claiming otherwise. While he is not
formally or advertised as CNRT’s candidate, looking at all the posters and
stickers around the place, it is impossible to believe otherwise. He is CNRT’s
candidate in everything but name. XG is behind him, he turns up at rallies and
is in all the posters. There is one with an older photograph of the two of them
in military fatigues, along with a recent photo of them in civilians clothing. This is a similar one in sticker form:
As I’ve
argued before, XG is CNRT, XG with TMR = TMR as CNRT’s candidate in the
perception and minds of people when they see those campaign posters. It is a
quiet and subtle endorsement of TMR by CNRT via the agency of XG. I don’t have
a problem with CNRT getting behind TMR; the problem is with the argument that
he is an independent candidate, I think it’s disingenuous. How much he is in
control of his candidature and campaign, and how much XG and CNRT are behind it
is hard to tell. The influence that XG would like to exert on TMR should he win
office will be a question that can only be answer in time, should TMR win.
Should he win, and should the formation of government get messy like it did
last time, well, I can only suggest you watch this space. The President is
empowered to invite the parties to try and form government, in theory the party
with the most seats has the first opportunity to do so. FRETILIN feel hard done
by with what happened in 2007, despite winning most seats, they claim they were
not given a chance to form a coalition government. Again, what went down at
this time is disputed, but if no party has a majority and needs to form a
coalition government to rule, the role of the president will be critical. It
could spell trouble. Both CNRT and FRETILN would want to have influence over
the President in this situation, this would test the integrity and independence
of the President in relation to the parties and individuals behind them.
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